Brazil on track for a new record soybean harvest: expectations for 2025/26

The expectation is that the Brazil on track for new record soybean harvest consolidate your global leadership.

Brazilian agribusiness begins the new agricultural cycle with cautious optimism. The 2025/26 soybean harvest looms large on the horizon as another chapter in overcoming challenges.

The Beginning of the Journey: Projections and Area Increase

Resilient Brazilian producers continue to invest in planting. Expanding cultivated area is the initial driver of this record projection. Strategic planning is crucial.

States like Mato Grosso and Matopiba are driving this growth front.

Farmers are showing confidence, even in the face of global market uncertainty. The area planted with oilseeds is expected to reach a new all-time high.

According to National Supply Company (Conab), soybean production in the 2025/26 cycle is projected at 177.67 million tons.

This volume, if confirmed, will represent an increase of 3.6% over the previous harvest.

Expansion occurs through the incorporation of degraded pasture areas. This movement signals more efficient and sustainable land use. There is a clear optimization of available resources.

Read more: Inspiring stories from Brazilian rural producers

Determining Factors: Climate, Technology and Productivity

Average productivity is the most sensitive and decisive variable. Crop performance depends directly on weather conditions.

Well-distributed rainfall is the fuel for high performance.

The use of technology Cutting-edge technology becomes non-negotiable to mitigate risks. Farmers adopt more adapted seeds and state-of-the-art pesticides.

Precise management and digital agriculture are indispensable allies.

In Rio Grande do Sul, a significant productivity recovery is projected. The state has suffered from adverse weather conditions in recent cycles.

This recovery is fundamental for the national volume.

++ Technological innovations that marked the agricultural sector this year

Aprosoja/MS projects production of 15.2 million tons for Mato Grosso do Sul. This number surpasses the previous record and reflects the region's technological advancements.

Risk management is the key piece.

The Profitability Challenge and the Economic Scenario

Despite the significant volume, producer profitability is under pressure. Production costs are rising, driven by rising input prices.

Fertilizers and pesticides weigh heavily on the farm budget.

The appreciation of the real against the dollar also exerts a countervailing force on prices. The producer sells commodities in dollars, but the revenue is converted into national currency.

The profit margin is squeezed.

The consultancy Itaú BBA estimates that the cost of soybean production will rise in the 2025/2026 harvest. The producer's margin may be reduced compared to the previous harvest.

This is a dilemma that requires extreme caution in marketing.

++ Herd monitoring with drones and sensors

Imagine a farmer as a plate juggler. One plate represents the climate, another represents costs, and a third represents international prices.

He needs to keep everyone spinning in the air to be successful.

Pressure on profitability does not slow down the momentum of production. After all, Brazil on track for new record soybean harvest continues to be the major global supplier.

The farmer seeks scale to compensate for the smaller margin.

++ Brazil projects record soybean harvest in 2025/26 with stable global stocks

The Global Market and Chinese Demand

International demand for Brazilian soybeans remains strong. China is the main locomotive, absorbing most of the exports.

China's appetite for animal protein drives the crush.

Global geopolitics also directly influences the soybean market. Any trade friction between the United States and China benefits Brazil.

This reinforces the country's position as a reliable supplier.

The increase in production of biofuels consumption is increasing in Brazil and abroad. Soybean oil is an essential component of the sustainable energy matrix.

This creates a structural and growing demand.

THE Brazil on track for new record soybean harvest maintains the global supply and demand balance. The 6.2 million-ton increase in Conab's projection is significant.

This additional volume helps supply the market.

Logistics and Infrastructure: The Persistent Bottleneck

A record harvest volume demands a suitable transportation system. Brazil's logistics infrastructure remains a bottleneck. Road transport dominates the supply chain.

There are queues at ports and warehouses during peak shipping times.

Increasing production without adequate improvements in transportation drives up costs. Investment in railways and waterways is urgently needed.

The development of new export corridors, such as those in the Northern Arc, is vital. For example, investment in port terminals in Maranhão and Pará is strategic. This alleviates pressure on ports in the South and Southeast.

Without adequate infrastructure, the record could cost producers more. It's crucial that the government and private sector join forces.

Productivity in the field requires efficient logistics.

Sustainability and the Future of Brazilian Soy

Growing international pressure for sustainable production is a fact. The market demands traceability and environmental commitment from producers.

Brazilian soybeans need to be green, as well as abundant.

Low-carbon practices, such as no-till farming and crop-livestock-forest integration, are crucial.

Maintaining global leadership depends on the environmental agenda. Brazil on track for new record soybean harvest needs to demonstrate responsibility.

Conscientious producers already incorporate these practices and seek certifications. It's an investment in the future and in the product's acceptance in the most demanding markets.

Sustainability is a competitive asset.

The future of agribusiness depends on this equation: high productivity with environmental responsibility.

The question remains: Will we be able to transform productive potential into sustainable wealth for all links in the chain?

Conclusion: Between Optimism and Reality

The outlook for the 2025/26 harvest is one of data-driven optimism. Brazil on track for new record soybean harvest consolidates itself as a power.

The strength of the farmer, combined with technology, drives the sector.

However, the path is not without obstacles. Pressured prices, rising costs, and logistical challenges require careful management. Profitability will be the barometer of the harvest's success.

Despite the challenges, Brazil's production capacity is undeniable. The world will continue to rely on the country's oilseed.

The sector remains attentive to the climate and the global market to transform the projection into reality.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the soybean production projection for the 2025/26 harvest in Brazil?

THE Conab projects a production of 177.67 million tons for the 2025/26 harvest, an increase of 3.6% compared to the previous cycle.

What can affect the profitability of soybean producers in this cycle?

Profitability may be pressured by increase in input costs (fertilizers and pesticides) and by appreciation of the real against the dollar, which impacts the final price received.

Should demand for Brazilian soybeans remain high?

Yes, demand is expected to remain high, driven mainly by China, for crushing and production of animal feed, and for its increasing use in biofuels.

How important are logistics for the record harvest?

Logistics is crucial. Record volumes require an efficient transportation infrastructure (ports, railways, and highways).

The logistical bottleneck can increase costs and compromise the competitiveness of soybeans.