Brazil projects record grain and protein harvest in 2025/26: impacts for producers and the domestic market

It's official: the Brazil projects record grain and protein harvest 2025/26, creating a robust scenario for national agribusiness.

This column details the underlying facts behind these numbers. We'll analyze the impact of this monumental harvest on producers and domestic supplies.

The Brazilian countryside demonstrates unparalleled resilience and productive capacity.

The positive outlook reflects investments, cutting-edge technology and increasingly improved rural management.

What Drives the Projection of a Historic Harvest?

The basis for this record projection lies in the combination of strategic factors. Expanding cultivated area and improving average productivity are crucial.

Furthermore, the global outlook maintains strong demand, especially for soybeans. The injection of resources from the Safra Plan also fuels optimism in the sector.

Producers continue to invest in biotechnology and precision agriculture. Evenly distributed rainfall, despite occasional challenges, has favored crop development.

This combination of technical and climatic factors paves the way for a historic harvest. Brazil's leading role in the global food scene is consolidated.

What is the Expected Volume and Featured Crops?

The National Supply Company (CONAB) released very encouraging data. Total grain production is expected to reach an unprecedented level.

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Soybeans and cotton are leading the way in expected growth. This impressive production volume reaffirms the strength of our agricultural sector.

Corn, in turn, is experiencing a productivity adjustment but remains relevant. Rice and beans, staples on Brazilian tables, have guaranteed production.

The increase in planted area compensates for specific variations in yield in some regions.

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Actual Data from the Conab Harvest Projection 2025/2026

Source: Perspectives for Agriculture 2025/2026, Conab – September/2025.

Conab points to a total production of 353.8 million tons of grains. This volume represents an increase of 1% over the previous record of 350.2 million tons.

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The cultivated area is estimated at 84.24 million hectares, an expansion of 3.1% in the 2025/26 cycle.

How Does This Record Harvest Affect Rural Producers?

The news of the Brazil projects record grain and protein harvest 2025/26 brings a mixture of euphoria and caution.

Successful producers know that high volumes put pressure on international and domestic prices. This requires even more efficient risk management and marketing.

Read also: The 2025/2026 harvest is expected to break a new record with 353.8 million tons.

Imagine the market as a large water reservoir. The more water enters, the lower the value of each individual liter.

Producers need to negotiate in advance to ensure the profitability of their harvest. Efficiency in logistics and storage becomes a competitive advantage.

The appreciation of the dollar against the real, however, cushions this decline for exporters. Those who invested in technology are now reaping the rewards of improved productivity.

The challenge lies in transforming this volume into consistent profit, overcoming high production costs.

What are the Impacts on the Domestic Market and Prices?

For consumers, the record harvest creates the prospect of relief from food inflation. The increased domestic supply tends to stabilize, and even reduce, retail prices.

The country's food security is strengthened by this vast availability of basic products.

Bean production, for example, is estimated at 3.1 million tons. Conab believes this volume is sufficient to ensure national consumption.

This stability is essential for family budgets, relieving pressure on income.

Proteins and the Cascade Effect:

Record grain production, especially soybeans and corn, is the basis for animal protein production. These grains are essential raw materials for poultry and swine feed.

Consequently, chicken and pork production is also projected to increase significantly, according to Conab.

How Does Protein Projection Complement Grain Projection?

Growth in poultry and pork production is strengthening the protein sector. Conab projects an increase in pork exports.

Asian demand for this protein is driving the sector's growth. Brazil is consolidating itself not only as a grain storehouse but also as a protein powerhouse.

According to Conab, protein projections for 2026 indicate that pork will reach 4.3 million tons. This demonstrates the multiplier effect of agribusiness.

Greater availability of quality feed at controlled prices benefits the entire production chain.

An example of this is what's happening in the South of the country. The greater local supply of corn and soybeans allows pig farming cooperatives to reduce their operating costs.

This advantage translates into more competitive prices for the end consumer. Beef, on the other hand, is undergoing supply adjustments, but diversification ensures consumers have options.

Why is Logistics the “Achilles Heel” of the Super Harvest?

Despite the optimism, the colossal volume of the 2025/26 harvest exposes structural weaknesses. It's like trying to drain a raging river through a small stream.

Our transportation systems, especially railways and ports, face chronic bottlenecks. Inadequate infrastructure increases costs and reduces competitiveness.

Road transportation, the main mode of transportation, suffers from a lack of quality and capacity. The lack of adequate warehouses also causes losses and burdens producers post-harvest.

Investment in infrastructure is urgently needed to ensure this record volume does not become a problem.

In 2025, the average freight cost for transporting soybeans from Mato Grosso to ports remained high.

According to the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA), logistics costs still represent one of the largest portions of the final price of exported grain.

This is a structural challenge that needs to be addressed.

What Does the Future Hold for Brazilian Agribusiness?

THE Brazil projects record grain and protein harvest 2025/26 and that's more than just a number. It's proof of the industry's competence.

The adoption of sustainable practices, such as no-till farming, is growing and crucial. Sustainability ensures long-term productivity.

Producers need rural credit and public policies that encourage innovation. Technology continues to be the driver of rural growth.

Farmers' resilience, combined with science, paints a promising future for national agribusiness.

In the face of a new production record, with the Brazil projects record grain and protein harvest 2025/26, what is really missing to consolidate the infrastructure?

Production capacity is already available, but the country needs to be efficient in getting food from farm to table.

Conclusion: The Challenge of Reaping and Distributing Success

The 2025/2026 harvest paints a picture of abundance for Brazil. The numbers confirm the country's potential as a global food leader.

The goal is to ensure that this productive success translates into prosperity for the producer and fair prices for the consumer.

The challenge now is to ensure efficient logistics and marketing. Success depends on a strategic vision that encompasses both the field and infrastructure.

THE Brazil projects record grain and protein harvest 2025/26 and the world watches.

Frequently Asked Questions

Could this record 2025/2026 grain harvest lower supermarket prices?

Yes.

The natural tendency of a significant increase in the domestic supply of grains and, consequently, proteins (meat), is to stabilize or even fall retail prices for the end consumer, alleviating inflationary pressure on food.

Which crop most drives Conab's projected grain record?

Soybeans are the main contributor, projecting a growth of 3.6% in production, reaching 177.67 million tons, due to the expansion of the planted area and the recovery of productivity in key states.

What could threaten the producer's profitability even with a record harvest?

The main risks are downward pressure on prices, due to the high supply volume, and logistical bottlenecks (transportation and storage) that increase production flow costs and can cause post-harvest losses.

Will animal protein production also increase?

Yes. Conab projects growth in poultry and pork production, which will benefit from the greater availability and better prices of grains (corn and soybeans) used in feed. Beef, however, may experience a supply adjustment due to the livestock cycle.